Predicting the winner, and going over key match-ups, line-ups, and X’s and O’s
These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found here.
After a season to forget, Real Madrid are here — arms length away from making a real push for the league title. A win against Barcelona could put a second dent into their rivals sails just days after Inter Milan ended their European run. Could Real Madrid snatch a second major title from the Catalans after many had anticipated a treble for Barcelona? Three points at the Montjuic could open that door.
Yet, as simple as all that sounds, logic tells us otherwise: Barcelona have outscored Real Madrid 12 – 4 over three match-ups this season. Two of those games haven’t been close. The third one was at least contested. The bigger question is this: How much did Real Madrid learn over time, and did they take note of what happened in that second-half window in the Copa del Rey final that gave them an edge over their rivals for the first time this season?
Or will that learning be pushed aside for more of the status quo, conservative approach?
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There are big questions heading into this one. Here are some key points on my mind with regards to match-ups, line-ups, and X’s and O’s:
Fran Garcia vs Lamine Yamal
Football is never as straightforward as simplifying match-ups to ‘x player’ vs ‘x player’. There is coverage, help defense, and collective schemes that are supposed to mitigate damage. But we do know one thing: Fran Garcia will have to go up against Lamine Yamal, a lot.
Lamine Yamal is Barcelona’s highest volume attacker. Once the back line and Pedri usher possession into the final third, he is the target outlet. Lamine Yamal currently receives the most progressive passes in the league (397), and has the most successful take-ons (138) in the Big Five leagues. He leads Europe in through-balls and goal-creating actions. No player in Spain has slung more passes into the penalty area or has had as many assists.
No matter who Real Madrid were going to field at left-back, that wing-back would’ve had their hands full, regardless. This time it’s selected by default as Ferland Mendy, David Alaba, and Eduardo Camavinga are all out. It could be argued that Ancelotti is forced to go with his best option, Fran Garcia, anyway. Garcia has been Real Madrid’s best performing left-back this season, even if the bar has been low.
In the 2 – 1 Copa del Rey Final loss to Barcelona, Garcia entered the field after just eight minutes for the injured Mendy. Bar a couple sequences early on where he looked nervy facing Lamine Yamal, his fight for the remainder of the game defensively was impressive, and he ended up being one of the handful of players who stood out from that game.
But it won’t be just on Garcia — far from it. Lamine Yamal’s biggest threat comes as a creator, not scorer, though you can never count him out of scoring a goal. Once he cuts in, it’s the diagonal ball into the far post — the one that dips just in time to clip an attackers head — that has thrown opposing defensive lines into a frenzy all season. Garcia’s individual defense is important, but just as important will be the coverage inside from the left center-back (likely Aurelien Tchouameni) or the midfielders — something vital to consider given the team’s two most natural midfield anchors, Tchouameni (shifting to center-back) and Eduardo Camavinga (injured) won’t be in the team, which means there is big onus on players like Luka Modric / Dani Ceballos / Jude Bellingham / Arda Güler. Will Fede Valverde be in midfield or at right-back? More on this later.
Garcia has struggled finding the confidence he had at Rayo Vallecano. That’s natural. Real Madrid is a different beast. The spotlight is brighter, hotter — more flustering. In Rayo his team looked for him, used him as a fulcrum. At Real, he is a by-product, a side-quest to Vinicius’s ball dominant style on the left-wing. He’s also been in and out of the line-up, which has hurt his momentum.
Still, in the Copa del Rey Final, it was encouraging to see him stand his ground more and more as the game wore on:
Fran Garcia may not be a long-term starting calibre player for a club like Real Madrid, but he can be a good squad player, and on Sunday, Real Madrid will need him at his best. We will see a lot of Garca – Lamine Yamal duels. Winning them all is a tall task, but he doesn’t need to — a lot of the battles will need to be won mentally, switching onto other players (like the sequence above), and a lot of help will need to come from his teammates.
Taking the game to Barcelona
This is a grim paragraph, but, um: Real Madrid are not really good at anything. They are not a good pressing team, nor are they good in a low block. Their transition offense sludges through mud, and their ball progression struggles against good pressing teams.
So how does Carlo Ancelotti approach this game?
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Themes from Clasico this season are not great: Barcelona keep the ball in Real Madrid’s third, Real Madrid’s first line of defense is permeated with one pass, Barcelona have numerical superiority and work their way through until Thibaut Courtois makes a big save. If Hansi Flick’s men don’t get that far, they are able to pounce quickly through rabid counter-pressing. Real Madrid get pinned, and rare transition attacks to the starving Vinicius and Mbappe are snuffed out quickly. From there it spirals: Barcelona gain momentum, Real Madrid lose confidence — the psychological gap (and the scoreline) between both teams increases. It’s hard to make the right pass in transition when you rarely get on the ball.
How can Real Madrid mitigate this? It’s probably to take the game to Barcelona — to make them uncomfortable, rather than putting them in their comfort zone of letting them have the ball at their feet.
Flick-ball is great, but it’s also easily scout-able: Barcelona play one way and one way only. Even when they had one foot in the Champions League Final, with minutes left on the clock, they had only three defenders back to defend Inter’s last-minute equalizer. Beating Barcelona is about incisiveness, timed runs, and exploiting the space behind. A team with Vinicius, Mbappe, and Bellingham should have no excuses not having a high volume of breaks against such an exaggerated high line.
Deciphering ‘taking the game to Barcelona’ is difficult. What does this actually mean? The second-half blueprint from the Copa del Rey Final, where Ancelotti’s men were able to string meaningful spells of incisive possession with offensive surges from Arda Güler, Bellingham, Tchouameni, and Valverde were huge on getting Barcelona to crack. Real Madrid are better when they are making use of their on-ball talent. But that talent is not always on the field, nor are those players always being used to their best capacity.
Which leads to our next question…
Should Arda Güler start?
Arda Güler is in form, hitting this Clasico with stride — with momentum. But besides the point of him meriting a start is his unique profile, and the opponent he’s coming up against.
Güler’s profile ticks all the boxes needed to play against Barcelona. He is press-resistant and he is vertical. He zips the ball from point A to point B with execution and purpose. Sometimes point A to point B is not obvious, and to break down elite opponents, you need that vision — you need a player who sees what no one else does. Güler has that. He has the vision and the execution.
It is a dialogue that’s been beaten to death but remains true: Real Madrid’s ball progression has fallen off a cliff without Toni Kroos. With Dani Ceballos being injured for so long, it’s bizarre Güler wasn’t given a look earlier in the season. Now that he has, he’s made Real Madrid look at lot better. Even against Barcelona, the team’s best spell coincided with his entrance into the game in the second half.
Güler is an active outlet, and can drop deep between center-backs to help escape pressure — a positive trade-off if he starts over Rodrygo who will have a more rigid right-wing role. He helps break the defense with splitting balls into the half-space:
Güler will help put more pressure on Pedri and Frenkie de Jong. Him and Bellingham worked well to get in behind Barcelona’s midfield, and even overran them for a solid chunk of the second half of the Copa del Rey FInal.
The alternate path of taking away a central figure like Güler in favour Rodrygo, who sticks to the wing, eases the pain of Barcelona’s midfielders. Why not shake things up instead of rolling with the same line-up that was eviscerated in previous Clasicos?
Rodrygo, despite how hard he works on defense to compensate for the other two attackers, also provides some redundancy, through no fault of his own. He is a similar profile to Vinicius and Mbappe. Güler provides something different, and fills a tactical void.
Where should Fede Valverde play?
This would be a no-brainer had Tchouameni and Camavinga been available to play in midfield. As things stand, Tchouameni will play center-back, while Camavinga won’t be seen until next season.
Still, is it justifiable putting Lucas Vazquez on the field? In this author’s eyes, the answer is obvious: no. Vazquez is a big liability defensively, and ball progression comes to a halt when he gets the ball at his feet. Once Barca press him, it’s almost guaranteed he will cough up possession. Physically, he is weak. Valverde, despite being needed in midfield, can still help lift weights offensively by surging forward with unstoppable drives. Part of the change in dynamic of the second half of the Copa del Rey final was Valverde being shifted to right-back and Vazquez being subbed off. There is nearly an entire season of learning here: Real Madrid are far better with Valverde, instead of Vazquez, at right-back.
Vinicius and Mbappe vs Ronald Araujo / Eric Garcia
It’s time for Vinicius and Mbappe to go hunting. There is no excuse now not to step up — this is an ideal scenario to attack. Barcelona will be without Jules Koundé, the man who has organized Barcelona’s flank defense and marshalled a high line while being important in the build-up phase and feeding Lamine Yamal on the right.
In his absence, Flick will likely field Eric Garcia, who is a big downgrade on defense. There is an outside chance Flick will field Araujo instead, but that’s unlikely given Araujo was benched against Inter and struggles defending a high line.
Whoever Flick puts at right-back, Mbappe and Vinicius have to hunt him mercilessly. Don’t let Barcelona’s injuries go unpunished.
The bench mob
If the game-changers off the bench in the Copa del Rey Final — namely Arda Güler, Kylian Mbappe, Luka Modric — are to start against Barcelona on Sunday, Ancelotti won’t have them off the bench in the second half (duh).
Now that the obvious is out of the way — it’s imperative to get big showings from the bench mob: Brahim Diaz (poor off the bench in the Copa del Rey final), Rodrygo (his two-way energy could be key in keeping Barcelona on their toes), Lucas Vazquez (inevitable). Ancelotti may also bring on Endrick, though it would largely depend on the game state. My bet is that there are two guaranteed cameos: Rodrygo and Vazquez.
Barcelona have just come off a gruelling extra time in Milan. Making use of early subs in the second half could be key, but those players need to make a big impact.
Prediction
There shouldn’t be any surprise if Barcelona sweep Real Madrid in their fourth straight Clasico win and effectively seal the league title. The evidence this season from both teams would point to that likelihood. I’ll zag, despite the logic: Real Madrid will win, taking advantage of Barcelona’s wing-back injuries and fatigue from the Champions League extra-time melee. Hay Liga!
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